Speaker:
Jarosław Duda, Wydział Matematyki i Informatyki, Uniwersytet Jagielloński
Date:
27/03/2019 - 13:00
While machine learning techniques are very powerful, they have some weaknesses, like
iterative optimization with many local minimums, large freedom of parameters, lack of their
interpretability and accuracy control. From the other side we have classical statistics based on
moments not having these issues, but providing only a rough description. I will talk about approach
which combines their advantages: with MSE-optimal moment-like coefficients, but designed such that
we can directly translate them into probability density. For multivariate case such basis of mixed
moments asymptotically allows to accurately reconstruct any joint distribution, each coefficient
can be independently and cheaply estimated, has a clear interpretation, and we have some control of
its accuracy. I will also present its two applications: systematic enhancement of ARMA/ARCH-like
modeling for any mixed moments and non-stationary time series, and for credibility evaluation of
income data: modeling continuous conditional probability distribution from a large number of
variables of various types. Slides: https://www.dropbox.com/s/7u6f2zpreph6j8o/rapid.pdf